At least five dozen rebel candidates of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) are contesting in the national election. Defying party organizational discipline, the rebels are actively present in the electoral field. It is still not clear whose interests or whose instigation have led the rebels to contest elections outside party decisions. Most rebel candidates are heated up in causing damage to the party. They have forgotten the torture, oppression, imprisonment, and persecution of the past.

According to political analysts, it is urgent for BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman to stop the rebel candidates by calling them or summoning them.

As reasons, they said that since the Awami League is not participating in the election, Jamaat has now emerged as a strong opponent. In most constituencies, Jamaat has built a position capable of competing with BNP. Moreover, there is no internal conflict within Jamaat. But Jamaat is desperate to take advantage of internal conflicts in most BNP constituencies.

Another issue is that it is not clear whom Awami League supporters will vote for if they go to polling centers.

Besides, in every district, the impact of BNP rebel candidates contesting as independents may reasonably affect other party candidates in other constituencies. If BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman takes these issues into consideration, it will be easier for the party and its chances of winning the election.

According to informed sources, BNP candidates are not able to carry out campaigning freely and without obstacles. They are continuing their campaigns under mental pressure. In contrast, Jamaat is different. They are ahead of BNP in electoral charisma. People have not been able to vote for the last 17 years. BNP’s popularity nationwide is quite strong. But due to internal party conflicts and various false propaganda by Jamaat, the party has suffered major damage. Many heavyweight BNP leaders and candidates think they will win easily on February 12. But field surveys may show a different picture. If BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman does not seriously look into these issues amid his hundred engagements, and if the desired result collapses, there will be nothing to do at that moment. Then even banging one’s head against the wall will be of no use.

A party source of BNP has claimed that someone must dare to inform the chairman about these matters. Even amid his busy schedule, he will take the issues into account. Those who are always around Tarique Rahman should inform the leader of the overall ground situation. If it is not done on time, it will turn into a poisonous boil. And those who are now roaming behind the leader carrying oil drums will not be found then. The time has come to win public praise at any cost and form the government. Party sacrifice-minded leaders and activists believe that if this golden opportunity is lost in any way, BNP will fall behind for another decade.

Rebels are vigorously campaigning against party candidates. This is very uncomfortable for the party. As election day draws nearer, tension within the party is increasing—the rebels are becoming thorns in the throat if they do not step aside. From this concern, the party has taken a hard stance.

A tough message has been sent to the grassroots rebels. If they do not withdraw by supporting party candidates by February 5, the BNP high command has decided to expel them permanently. Those who do not follow party decisions even after that will never be able to return to the party. Such is the hardline stance of the party’s top leadership.

However, party sources said that instead of making the expulsion list long, bringing the rebels back home through the chairman’s intervention would be beneficial for the party.

Meanwhile, speaking with many rebel candidates, it has been learned that many of them want to withdraw by accepting the party decision. But they want BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman to call them personally. Then they will withdraw.

However, BNP high command sources say that Tarique Rahman is currently spending a very busy time with election campaigning across the country. He is not in a position to call anyone. And he will not go beyond party decisions. Whoever the party has nominated must be supported, and any rebel candidate must withdraw. But considering the field reality, the rebels are a poisonous boil for BNP—something that no one except the party chief can resolve.

In this context, one rebel said that if national leader Begum Khaleda Zia were alive, she would have summoned the rebel candidates long ago and made them withdraw their candidacies. She was an unparalleled leader.

Multiple party sources say that in several constituencies, rebels are in strong positions for strategic reasons. In those seats, BNP will not apply pressure. To prevent Jamaat-e-Islami from emerging in those constituencies, rebels will be given “concessions.”

Besides, in constituencies where BNP rebel candidates are harming the party’s Sheaf of Paddy candidate, the party has taken a strict stance. In the future, according to organizational decisions, opportunities to return to the party for life may be closed.

However, the real question is how much of this equation has been managed. It should not happen that due to a wrong equation, the electoral battle collapses.

Many who contested elections outside BNP party decisions have withdrawn from the race. Still, at least 60 to 65 candidates remain in the field. Members of BNP’s election management committee say that over time, most rebel candidates will withdraw.

In Narayanganj-1 (Rupganj), BNP rebel candidate Mohammad Dulal Hossain wants to speak with the party chief to withdraw from the election.

He said, “Contesting elections outside party decisions amounts to betrayal. When a crisis arose regarding keeping my candidacy despite the party’s nomination, I could not withdraw. If the party wants, I will still publicly work in favor of the Sheaf of Paddy candidate Mostafizur Rahman Bhuiyan Dipu. But it must be before February 5. If I receive a respectable assurance, I will withdraw my candidacy. Like Mostafiz, many are waiting for Tarique Rahman’s phone call.”

Regarding this, BNP Election Management Committee member secretary and senior joint secretary general Advocate Ruhul Kabir Rizvi told the media, “Party discussions have been held with many. Our chairman Tarique Rahman is busy with election activities. So there is no opportunity for him to talk. Within a day or two, all BNP rebel candidates will withdraw their candidacies.”

In Mymensingh-10 (Pagla and Gafargaon), BNP candidate is Akhtaruzzaman Bacchu. Going beyond party decisions, BNP rebel candidate is A B Siddikur Rahman. In regional equations, the Sheaf of Paddy candidate may fall into trouble. In the southern part of the constituency, eight unions have both high voter numbers and many candidates. In this region, along with BNP’s candidate, Jamaat, Islami Andolan, and LDP candidates are main contenders.

Additionally, in the northern part, BNP rebel candidate A B Siddikur Rahman is alone trying to control the entire field. Although after BNP took organizational measures, party leaders and activists have become active. Many are now working unitedly with the BNP candidate. However, locals say that due to regional division, the rebel candidate’s influence may affect the BNP candidate.

In Mymensingh-11 (Bhaluka), BNP candidate is Fakhruddin Ahmed Bacchu. The BNP rebel candidate is Morshed Alam, who is firm about staying in the race. He said, “I am fighting the election amid many adverse conditions. Although the situation was somewhat bad at first, the environment has been improving over the last week. He said the Sheaf of Paddy candidate’s people disturbed him a lot.”

The rebel candidate further said, “No one from the party has contacted me yet. Now the time has passed. There is no opportunity to withdraw. I am in the field, campaigning.”

Regarding allegations of collusion with Jamaat and campaigning with Awami League people, he said, “Anyone can accuse anyone.”
Sheaf of Paddy candidate Fakhruddin Ahmed Bacchu said, “The rebel candidate has no influence in this constituency. He has been expelled from the party. Party leaders and activists are working in favor of the Sheaf of Paddy.”

Due to contesting elections outside party decisions, BNP expelled 59 leaders together on January 21. Before and after that, several candidates were expelled in phases. Earlier, party leaders and activists supported them as “party brothers,” but after expulsion, many lost influence. As a result, how much impact the rebels can have in the field is being centrally monitored. At the grassroots, monitoring is ongoing to identify who is campaigning for rebels, and organizational action will be taken against them. However, it is still unclear whether the expulsions will have any adverse impact on voters.

BNP joint secretary general Ruhul Kabir Rizvi said that the party is not worried about rebel candidates: “Those who contested elections defying party decisions have been contacted multiple times. From Dhaka, we contacted them, talked to them, and asked them not to contest. But they did not listen and did not withdraw. Organizational action has been taken against many. Action will be taken against those still working outside the party.”

BNP media cell convener Dr. Moudud Hossain Alamgir Pavel told the media, “Many BNP rebel candidates have already withdrawn. Still, 60 to 65 remain. We hope they will also withdraw. The party is contacting everyone.”

BNP Election Management Committee spokesperson Dr. Mahadi Amin said, “The party has taken organizational measures regarding rebels. Ultimately, most may withdraw.”

In Dhaka-12, BNP has supported Revolutionary Workers Party’s Saiful Haque as an alliance partner. In this seat, BNP’s strong rebel candidate is Saiful Alam Nirab. However, Dhaka Metropolitan BNP leader Anwaruzzaman Anwar is campaigning in favor of Nirab, working to unite BNP leaders and activists. According to BNP leaders and activists, Nirab is not in a very favorable position. However, locals say Nirab is a strong rebel candidate. If he is made to sit down, BNP will win the seat.

In Dhaka-14, BNP candidate is Sanzida Islam (Tuli). BNP rebel candidate is former Darussalam Thana BNP convener Syed Abu Bakar Siddik (Saju), son of former BNP MP S A Khalek. Without party support, Saju is in trouble.

Locals said that if he had party support, history might have been written differently. But if Jamaat enters amid the clash between the two, the situation will worsen.

Many heavyweight candidates are in trouble without party support. Unable to use organizational strength, they are becoming “alone” in the field.

In Natore-1 (Lalpur-Bagatipara), two strong rebel candidates are BNP assistant office secretary Taiful Islam Tipu and district BNP member Dr. Yasir Arshad Rajan. With party support, Sheaf of Paddy candidate Barrister Farzana Sharmin Putul has changed the equation. Questions have arisen over what the final result will be and who will become MP.

In Tangail-5, BNP candidate is party publicity secretary Sultan Salahuddin Tuku. Rebel candidate is district BNP member and expelled general secretary Advocate Farhad Iqbal. This seat is the most important among Tangail’s eight constituencies. Although support for Tuku is increasing, Jamaat and rebels together are plotting various conspiracies.

Additionally, strong BNP rebel candidates exist in Khagrachhari, Kurigram-4, Rajbari-2, Chattogram-16, Sunamganj-4, Tangail-3, Mymensingh-3, Joypurhat-1, Bagerhat-4, Rajshahi-5, Natore-3, Narayanganj-3, and Gopalganj-2. Notably, BNP candidates are also in trouble in Tangail-3 and 8.

In Brahmanbaria-2, BNP rebel candidate is former MP Barrister Rumin Farhana. The BNP alliance partner’s nominated candidate is Maulana Junaid Al Habib, vice president of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Bangladesh. Additionally, in alliance-conceded seats such as Brahmanbaria-6, Sylhet-5, Jhenaidah-4, Jessore-5, and Narail-2, there are strong rebel candidates.

In Brahmanbaria-6 (Bancharampur), BNP rebel candidate Abdul Khaleque has already been expelled and is contesting as an independent. BNP-supported candidate is Junaid Saki, though from the beginning he had distance from local leaders and activists.

Junaid Saki said, “In the field, BNP leaders and activists are campaigning with me following party instructions. There were some problems due to group politics. Now it has been resolved. The BNP rebel candidate is not a heavyweight candidate that party leaders and activists would stay with him.”

In Patuakhali-3 (Galachipa-Dashmina), BNP alliance candidate is Nurul Haque Nur, president of Gano Odhikar Parishad. BNP rebel candidate is former executive committee member Hasan Mamun. He has been involved in politics in this constituency for nearly 36 years and has his own leaders, activists, and popularity. Initially, a large section of grassroots leaders and activists directly supported Hasan Mamun. After organizational measures were taken, the field situation changed. He now faces significant challenges in the electoral arena.

A responsible BNP leader said, “An election is a game. There are various equations. Not all decisions are final. In some places, concessions must be given. In several seats, BNP rebels are in strong positions. Our target is to ensure Jamaat cannot emerge from those seats. There, some BNP rebel ‘heavyweight’ candidates will receive concessions.

But a central BNP leader said, how will we determine who is heavyweight and who is weak? He believes that if the chairman takes action in time, BNP will win a single majority on February 12.”