Crime, illicit economy top risks for Bangladesh in 2026: WEF

Crime and illicit economic activity will pose the biggest risk to Bangladesh’s economy in 2026, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF), reflecting persistent concerns over governance weaknesses, market distortions and investor confidence.

In its Global Risks Report 2026, the WEF identified five major risks for each country based on executive surveys and expert assessments. For Bangladesh, criminal activity and illegal economic practices ranked first, followed by geo-economic tensions such as sanctions, tariffs and tighter scrutiny of cross-border investment.

Inflation was identified as the third most significant risk. Bangladesh has endured elevated inflation for nearly four years, with average inflation standing at 8.77% in 2025.

Economic slowdown ranked fourth, with the report warning of potential stagnation or recessionary pressures. Debt—covering public, corporate and household borrowing—was listed as the fifth major risk.

Rising debt has become a growing concern, with interest payments now absorbing the largest share of the national budget. Analysts caution that sustained pressure from debt servicing could increase Bangladesh’s vulnerability to falling into a middle-income trap.

The WEF report draws on interviews with institutions and individuals worldwide. In Bangladesh, the company-level survey was conducted by the private research organisation Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), a partner of the World Economic Forum.

CPD Research Director Khondaker Golam Moazzem said the findings were based on interviews with executives from 102 companies, using a standardised global questionnaire. The survey was conducted between May and July 2025 and asked respondents to identify the most pressing risks over the following two years from a list of 34 issues.

Moazzem noted that conditions have evolved since the survey period. “Compared to that time, criminal activity has declined to some extent. However, geo-political tensions have intensified, inflation has eased slightly, and risks linked to the misuse of artificial intelligence are increas-ing,” he said. Concerns over an economic slowdown have also moderated somewhat as the election cycle approaches, Moazzem added. The World Bank has projected Bangladesh’s GDP growth at 4.60% in the current fiscal year.

The report also reflects on the 2024 mass uprising in Bangladesh, noting that public discontent stemmed from a sense of exclusion from political decision-making and diminishing hopes for improved living standards. Similar dynamics were observed in Sri Lanka and Nepal.

Globally, the WEF identified geo-economic confrontation as the most severe risk in 2026, as the world moves towards a more competitive and fragmented order. Other major risks include interstate conflict, extreme weather events, social polarisation, and misinformation.

The report warns that escalating economic and geo-political tensions are placing global stability under increasing strain, while pressure on the multilateral system continues to grow amid declining trust, rising protectionism and weakening respect for the rule of law.