Rooftop solar push faces big target, weak readiness

Bangladesh’s new rooftop solar programme has been hailed as a bold move to expand renewable energy.

But experts have warned that the government’s ambitious target of installing 3,000 megawatts (MW) of capacity by December 2025 faces major hurdles in terms of readiness, capacity, and feasibility.

A new briefing note by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) finds that while the initiative signals strong commitment to clean energy, achieving the target within less than six months would require scaling up installations to more than 12 times the 245MW installed between June 2008 and June 2025.

“The target is overly ambitious,” says Shafiqul Alam, IEEFA’s lead energy analyst for Bangladesh.

“Government offices, hospitals, educational and religious institutions are unlikely to offer enough sanctioned load to accommodate 3,000MW of rooftop solar," he said.

"The Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority should first assess and document actual rooftop potential in these facilities," he added.

According to IEEFA, the combined power demand of government institutions amounts to less than 1,500MW, well below the programme’s 3,000MW goal under net metering guidelines. In addition, only 15 to 20 high-quality engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) firms are currently active in the sector.

This is the fact which is raising doubts about whether they have the capacity to deliver such large-scale installations in the short timeframe.

Under the government’s plan, offices will adopt the CAPEX model with public funding, while hospitals and schools will operate under the OPEX model with no upfront cost.

Shafiqul Alam highlights that both models carry risks. The CAPEX model, while faster and more cost-saving, may face poor coordination, rushed contractor selection, and lack of maintenance.

The OPEX model, though ensuring better quality, could suffer from financing barriers and rural load-shedding, making small, scattered projects unattractive to investors.

The note also points to risks from soiling, which can reduce annual solar output if maintenance is inadequate. To address this, IEEFA suggests creating dedicated funds from monthly savings under CAPEX projects and signing long-term service contracts.

Utilities, meanwhile, should devise ways to mitigate rural load-shedding that threatens solar generation reliability under OPEX schemes.

Lessons from neighbours

Bangladesh could also learn from its South Asian neighbours. Pakistan’s rooftop solar expansion was driven by an energy supply crunch and rising tariffs, while Sri Lanka overcame financing barriers with multilateral support and government subsidies. India, with 18 gigawatts of rooftop solar capacity as of May 2025, demonstrates the impact of sustained policy and regulatory backing.

Call for realism and monitoring

“As Bangladesh’s rooftop solar sector is still at a nascent stage, capacity building of government agencies and EPC companies will be critical,” says Alam.

“An independent monitoring mechanism must be established to ensure projects operate smoothly and stakeholder confidence is built.”

While rooftop solar remains a low-hanging fruit for achieving Bangladesh’s renewable energy target of 30% by 2040, IEEFA cautions that without realistic timelines, strong quality control, and robust maintenance frameworks, the December 2025 goal may remain out of reach.