Is West Bengal Changing?

Right next to us, a leftist force was in power for thirty-four long years. It was a state government, led by the Communist Party of India (CPI) (Marxist). But the popularity of such a powerful government was also interrupted at one point. The Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, then took the centre stage. She founded the party in 1998, breaking away from the powerful Congress at the centre and speaking out against corruption with the slogan of changing the fate of grassroots people. Two years later, young Congress leader Suvendu Adhikari joined her as her close aide. Suvendu started the land eviction prevention movement. During that time, the leftist government had taken an initiative to acquire ten thousand acres of land for establishing a special economic zone. This anti-government movement brought Mamata Banerjee to the limelight. In the 2011 elections, the Trinamool Congress shattered the thirty-four-year stronghold of the CPI (M). Since then, Mamata has been in power. Her simple slogan of ‘Maa, Mati o Manush’ (mother, land and people), matched with her white saree and cheap flat slippers, has become a new political icon.

All successes create some backlash. A tragedy was born in Mamata’s own home. In 2020, Suvendu Adhikari left his state ministry and joined the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP). It was like a 180-degree turn. The BJP is now running governments in 21 of India’s 31 states. The BJP-backed governments are in power in six more states. The BJP has been running the central government since 2014. As a result, with Suvendu Adhikari at the helm, the BJP’s focus is now on West Bengal.

For a long time, the BJP has been complaining that a large number of migrants from Bangladesh are illegally staying in West Bengal. They collect Aadhaar cards, ration cards, and even voter cards by paying bribes. Since they are politically patronised by the Trinamool Congress, their votes fall in the Trinamool box. Now, under the influence of the BJP government, the Election Commission of India has taken the initiative to re-examine the voter list under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) programme, with a view to remove the names of suspected migrants from the voter list. The Election Commission is carrying out this work in all the states in phases.

The Election Commission started this operation in West Bengal six months ago. The time was chosen in such a manner that even if an appeal is made, no one whose vote was rejected or remained under review can vote in this election. And in West Bengal, its electoral benefits will probably go directly to the BJP’s pocket.

In the last assembly elections in 2021, the fight between Trinamool and BJP was fierce. Trinamool got 48 percent of the votes and won 215 seats. Although the BJP could get 38 percent, it secured only 77 seats. The West Bengal Assembly elections always have a voter turnout of more than 80 percent. In 2021, it was 82 percent. The number of assembly seats is 294. Out of these, the fate of 57 seats was decided by a margin of just eight thousand votes. Trinamool won 29 and BJP 28. In 2021, there were over 73.4 million registered voters.

After five years, the number of voters has not increased. It has decreased by 91 lakhs due to the revision of the election commission. Of these 91 lakhs, Muslim voters are 65 percent. Out of these, 27 lakhs have appealed against the revision. But the election will be held before the appeal is disposed of. Trinamool says that the Election Commission is doing all this with the help of the government to influence the result of the elections. BJP says the opposite.

Some examples will make it clear that Trinamool’s claims hold water. The number of assembly seats in the Muslim-dominated Murshidabad district is 22. In the last election, Trinamool got 20 seats. This time, 7.5 lakh voter cards (13 percent of the total voters) have been cancelled here. On the other hand, 23.5 lakh voters have been excluded in North and South 24 Parganas, two districts consisting of 64 assembly seats. Of these, 58 went to Trinamool and only five to the BJP. In another instance, Mamata Banerjee lost to Suvendu Adhikari in the Nandigram seat by just 1,956 votes in the last election.

After the current revision, the number of voters in this seat has decreased by 14,000. This time, Mamata is contesting from Bhabanipur. In the last by-election, she won this seat by 29000 votes. In this revision, the number of voters in this seat has decreased by 51,000. That means the BJP-led central government and its administration are putting Mamata under pressure.

Apart from the Election Commission’s SIR programme, there has been a long-standing debate in India about the Citizenship Act Amendment (CAA) of 2019. There is a huge movement and debate going on in Assam regarding this. There is also a debate going on in West Bengal. The state of Kerala had filed a petition in the Supreme Court to stay the CAA. Many other individuals and organisations have filed petitions, too. The Supreme Court did not take these into cognisance. Under this act, there is an opportunity to grant citizenship to religious minorities from neighbouring countries, including Bangladesh, except for Muslim migrants and refugees. Nothing has been clarified about the citizenship of the Hindu Matua community living in West Bengal. Matua is a Hindu Dalit community, a large part of whom migrated to India from the then East Pakistan after 1947. Some of them have received citizenship; some have not. They usually vote against the party that runs the central government. Now the BJP are tempting them by showing them the twists in the citizenship law that if they vote for the BJP, they will be granted citizenship quickly. Moreover, like Suvendu Adhikari, one Muslim leader named Humayun Kabir has also left the Trinamool and formed the Aam Janata Unnayan Party. In turn, he is also a BJP stooge.

Mamata Banerjee used to give a monthly allowance of Rs1,000 to 2.5 crore women under the Lakshmi Bhandar scheme. In this election, she has promised to increase it to Rs1,500. She has also announced giving a youth allowance of Rs 1,500 too. The BJP has announced increasing these allowances to Rs 3,000 in its manifesto called Sangkalpa Patra—the letter of intent.

Added to all this is the allegation of failure against the Trinamool in preventing violence against women. This time, the BJP has fielded the mother of the intern doctor, who was raped and killed in a Kolkata hospital in August 2024, as a candidate from a Cooch Behar constituency. This means that the BJP will capitalise on the rape incident and will campaign against the Trinamool, blaming it for its failure.

All things considered, it seems that the BJP government has planned an engineered election in the name of the SIR through the Election Commission, and it will not be a difficult task for the BJP now to increase its vote share by five percent. It means under such a circumstance, the vote share of Trinamool and the BJP will be almost equal. The election will then become an uncertain gamble—anybody’s game.

Will Mamata, wearing a white saree and flat slippers, shouting slogans of ‘mother, land and people’, be able to win such a gamble? Or will Mamata lose the empire she built in the last 15 years?

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The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador