At least $1.33b economic output lost due to global warming in 2024

The World Bank has projected that Bangladesh lost $1.33-$1.78 billion, which represents about 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent of Bangladesh’s gross domestic product (GDP), due to global warming in 2024.

On Tuesday, the findings were published in a report titled “An Unsustainable Life: The Impact of Heat on Health and the Economy of Bangladesh.”

Projections indicate that by 2030, Bangladesh could lose around 4.9% of its GDP due to the adverse effects of extreme heat spurred by climate change, according to the report, which is the first of its kind.

Bangladesh is facing an increasing onslaught of extreme heat events, with temperatures rising at an alarming rate, particularly over the past decade.

“In line with global patterns, the maximum temperature in the country increased by 1.1°C, and the heat index—or “feels like” temperature—rose even more dramatically, by 4.5°C, between 1980 and 2023.”

The unprecedented warming has led to a tangible burden on the Bangladesh economy. The report estimates that productivity losses due to heat-induced physical and mental health conditions amounted to 25 million lost workdays in 2024.

While Bangladesh ranks second globally in exposure to elevated temperatures, the case of the capital Dhaka, identified as a global hotspot for urban heat, is particularly concerning. Dhaka warmed notably faster than the rest of the country, with heat index increasing 65% more than in the country as a whole, amid rapid unplanned urbanization, and population growth.

During days with temperatures exceeding 35°C, the likelihood of suffering heat exhaustion increased by 26.5%, compared to days when temperatures are below 30°C. Furthermore, during the summer, 4.4% of individuals reported having diarrhea, compared to 1.8% in winter. The largest burden of the disease is borne by children under age five and women.

Mental health is similarly affected by rising temperatures. The survey indicated that the prevalence of depression increased from 16.2 percent in winter to 20.0 percent in summer, while the prevalence of generalized anxiety disorders rose from 8.3 percent to 10.0 percent. During days above 35°C, the probability of reporting depression and anxiety increased by 23.8 percent and 37.1 percent, respectively, over days below 30°C.